Technical report
Methodology and Technical Input for the 2025 U.S. List of Critical Minerals: Assessing the Potential Effects of Mineral Commodity Supply Chain Disruptions on the U.S. Economy
U.S. Geological SurveyFederal agencyAugust 2025
Nedal T. Nassar, David Pineault, Sydney M. Allen, Dalton M. McCaffrey, Abraham J. Padilla, Jamie L. Brainard, Mani Bayani, Ensieh Shojaeddini, John W. Ryter, Sara Lincoln, Elisa Alonso
Abstract
Documents the risk modeling framework used to build the 2025 US List of Critical Minerals. Evaluates 1,200 trade disruption scenarios across 84 mineral commodities, weighting supplier willingness and ability to supply, and adds a single point of failure criterion for commodities with only one domestic producer.
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